Looking beyond the 'big three', there's only one clear favourite: Jumbo-Visma. It’s unclear if anybody will be able to follow. More relevant to his prospects here was his third place at the E3 Saxo Classic, where he looked to have a distinct edge on both Van der Poel and Van Aert on the Kwaremont. Pogačar has made a fast start to 2023, clocking up nine wins between Jaén Paraiso Interior, the Ruta del Sol and Paris-Nice. He had shown that Ronde victory, like just about everything else, lay firmly within his range. Pogačar’s ultimate defeat felt almost like a mere detail. Only Van der Poel could resist Pogačar’s onslaught and even he was clinging on by his fingertips come the top of the Paterberg. By dictating the terms of engagement throughout the finale, the Slovenian made a mockery of the received wisdom that riders with designs on the Tour de France couldn’t compete with the heavyweights on the cobbles. On his Tour of Flanders debut a year ago, Tadej Pogačar somehow contrived to finish fourth in a two-man sprint, but he still came away with his reputation firmly enhanced. Tadej Pogačar on the attack at the E3 Saxo Classic (Image credit: Nico Vereecken / Photo News/Getty Images) It’s striking, too, that after a slow start to 2023, his Alpecin-Deceuninck squad have suddenly hit form en masse, with Søren Kragh Andersen likely to play a key supporting role. At Milan-San Remo, he delivered a towering acceleration atop the Poggio to solo clear of Pogačar, Van Aert and Filippo Ganna and bring his running tally of Monuments to three. Van der Poel arrives at this Tour of Flanders with the considerable freedom of knowing that his Spring can already be classed as a success.

In 2022, by contrast, Van der Poel was a touch short of his best, but he had the nous to do just enough to parry Pogačar’s attacks before outfoxing him in the sprint. On his debut in 2019, Van der Poel was perhaps the day’s outstanding performer, making a dramatic recovery from a late crash, but he spent his energy too freely and positioned himself poorly on the Kwaremont. His maturation can be measured in his Ronde history. A third Ronde victory on Sunday would see the Dutchman join Buysse, Magni, Museeuw, Boonen and Cancellara atop the roll of honour at the age of just 28. No rider in the current peloton has a Tour of Flanders record like Mathieu van der Poel, whose sequence of results in his four appearances to date is imposing: fourth, first, second, and first. Mathieu van der Poel celebrates his Tour of Flanders last year (Image credit: Tim de Waele/Getty Images) Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck)

He also has the confidence of his own and Jumbo-Visma's remarkable run of results, not to mention the huge boost that came with beating Van der Poel in the sprint at E3 – something he'd not done in a while. In any case, Van Aert is clearly one of the three strongest riders in the race and, crucially, has a far stronger team than his two main rivals (a point we'll come onto later). Van Aert retaliated by blowing the doors off Gent-Wevelgem, but neither of his chief rivals were there, so it was hard to precisely place his performance in the pre-race power ladder.

Van Aert beat Van der Poel and Pogačar to win E3 but one lingering concern will be the fact he was temporarily distanced by the Slovenian's onslaught on the Oude Kwaremont. The only obstacle last year was COVID-19 and, despite six hours in the cold and rain at Gent-Wevelgem, he appears to have avoided illness and comes into the race with a similar level of form.

Van Aert done very little wrong recently, but one more missed opportunity and it will start to become an itch ahead of his sixth appearance next spring. At 28, it's considered time he started building his Monuments tally, with 'only' Milan-San Remo to his name so far, and two Flanders titles already to the name of his arch-rival, Van der Poel. There's a particular kind of expectation surrounding Van Aert, who seems perfectly poised on that fine line between home hope and home pressure.

Jumbo sequence game